{"id":2576,"date":"2018-07-02T10:00:50","date_gmt":"2018-07-02T10:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/athis-consulting.com\/news\/?p=2576"},"modified":"2018-08-26T09:21:37","modified_gmt":"2018-08-26T09:21:37","slug":"a-massive-windfall-for-chinas-fast-growing-tech-giants","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/athis-technologies.com\/news\/market\/2018\/a-massive-windfall-for-chinas-fast-growing-tech-giants\/","title":{"rendered":"A Massive Windfall For China’s Fast-Growing Tech Giants"},"content":{"rendered":"

China’s technology industry is exploding. Last year, gross output value of Chinese tech firms hit $3 trillion for the first year time ever.<\/p>\n

An excellent article by Frank Holmes,\u00a0CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors\u00a0<\/em>at\u00a0forbes.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Stop buying Iranian oil or face the music. That\u2019s the message the U.S. government shared with the world this week, giving importers until November 4 to cut their consumption of Iran\u2019s crude to zero\u2014or expect sanctions. The threat comes a month after President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Obama-era nuclear deal.<\/p>\n

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) responded by adding more than $6 to the price of a barrel this week alone, to end above $74.<\/p>\n

\"U.S.<\/a><\/p>\n

Other drivers included supply disruptions in Canada and Libya, as well as a sharp, more-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories. Nearly 10 million barrels were drawn in the week ended June 27, the most since September 2016. Crude is now up an eye-opening 70 percent from the same time last year, contributing to the inflationary pressure that\u2019s pushed consumer price growth to a six-year high.<\/a><\/p>\n

And there could be more upside, should supply crunches continue along with Trump\u2019s ongoing geopolitical efforts to isolate Tehran. Ready to see $90-a-barrel oil? That\u2019s the forecast from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Hootan Yazhari.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are in a very attractive oil price environment,\u201d Yazhari told CNBC this week,<\/a>\u201cand our house view is that oil will hit $90 by the end of the second quarter of next year,\u201d or 12 months from now.<\/p>\n

Even if this prediction ends up overshooting the mark, I believe there could still be money to be made in the energy space on tightening supply and strong global demand. For more, I urge you to watch this brief video<\/a> outlining the six factors that matter when picking energy stocks.<\/p>\n

Bull Market May Have Just Hit a Trade War Wall<\/h3>\n

The U.S. market is mere days from hitting a milestone that some investors might not have anticipated in the business-friendly era of Trump. Both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average have been stuck in correction mode since early February of this year, when inflation fears<\/a> and concerns of a global trade war triggered a monster selloff.<\/p>\n

Today marks the 99th day both indices have been in correction, and according to MarketWatch, if they stay sideways another 10 trading days, it will become the longest such stretch since 1984.<\/p>\n

Stocks managed to recover then, but as I see it, unless Trump softens his stance on trade, they will have a difficult time doing the same today. Stiff retaliatory barriers are scheduled to be raised by China, Canada and other key markets, and Canadian consumers have already started boycotting American-made goods. U.S. exports of steel, soybeans and other products are down from a year ago because of friction over the tariffs, which are essentially regulations<\/a> that could jeopardize the positive work Trump has done in cutting red tape in other areas.<\/p>\n

Below is the Dow\u2019s performance so far this year, not including today, annotated with some key moments in the Trump trade war. I chose the Dow specifically because it includes the very largest U.S. exporters, some of which do tens of billions of dollars in sales in China alone. As the biggest U.S. exporter, Boeing delivered more than 200 aircraft to the Asian country last year, accounting for a quarter of the plane maker\u2019s global sales. Apple generated around 20 percent of its revenue in China, or the equivalent of $44.7 billion.<\/p>\n

<<\/p>\n

p align=”center”>\"key<\/a><\/p>\n

The question now is whether we\u2019re headed for a recession, and how investors can prepare\u2014though I believe the market is oversold, as I explain in the most recent edition of Frank Talk Live. The last nine years have been extraordinarily profitable, but every bull market must come to an end\u2014not from age, remember, but from changes in monetary or fiscal policy.<\/p>\n

Trade war friction has strained international relations in other ways than just trade, of course. Among those is foreign direct investment (FDI), essential for global economic growth.<\/p>\n

Chinese FDI in the U.S. Just Fell 92 Percent<\/h3>\n

China\u2019s tech industry is exploding.<\/a> Last year, gross output value of Chinese tech firms hit 20 trillion yuan, or about $3 trillion, for the first time ever. Nine of the world\u2019s 20 biggest tech firms now call China home, beginning with Alibaba, valued at a half a trillion dollars. And for the past several years, China has filed far more patent applications than the U.S. on an annual basis. (I should mention, though, that the U.S. still has more patents overall, having just issued patent number 10 million.<\/a>)<\/p>\n

The Asian country, in fact, has more unicorns\u2014or startups worth $1 billion or more\u2014than any other nation on earth. Chinese unicorns account for more than half of the global total, and 66 percent in terms of valuation, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF).<\/p>\n

Just look at the top 10 Chinese unicorns. Ant Financial, formerly known as Alipay, ranks first with a valuation of $145 billion. That\u2019s about twice the value of the number one U.S. unicorn, Uber.<\/p>\n

<<\/p>\n

p align=”center”>\"top<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s very likely even more capital will flow into these firms this year and next. That\u2019s because Chinese FDI in the U.S. fell an eye-opening 92 percent in the first half of 2018, as the government cracks down on capital flight. The decline is also likely in response to the U.S. government\u2019s increased scrutiny of Chinese acquisitions.<\/p>\n

\"chinese<\/a><\/p>\n

According to economic research firm Rhodium, Chinese investors have sold $9.6 billion worth of U.S. assets, including office buildings in New York, San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angeles. That\u2019s after making only $1.8 billion in investments. What this means is that the country\u2019s net U.S. FDI is negative $7.8 billion so far this year.
\nAnd regarding a possible rebound in Chinese investment activity, \u201clooming U.S. policies present substantial headwinds,\u201d writes Rhodium\u2019s director of research, Thilo Hanemann.<\/p>\n

So where will all this capital go?<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think anyone can say for sure, but my guess is that this will be a huge windfall for the already fast expanding Chinese tech industry.<\/p>\n

Only Half of China Is Online<\/h3>\n

There are even more reasons to be optimistic about the Chinese tech industry, including the fact that only a little over half of the country\u2019s population is online. At 772 million people, the user base is massive\u2014more than twice the size of the entire U.S. population\u2014but penetration is only 54.6 percent,<\/a> according to UBS. That\u2019s well behind the U.K. (94.8 percent), Japan (93.3 percent) and the U.S. (87.9 percent).<\/p>\n

\"china's<\/a><\/p>\n

This means, of course, that the country\u2019s tech and internet industries still have much room to grow.<\/p>\n

China is already number one in mobile payments, having surged to a whopping $9 trillion in 2016,<\/a> compared to only $112 billion for the U.S. The Asian giant is rapidly becoming cashless\u2014so much so that a friend of mine recently had a hard time using paper money to make a purchase in a Chinese convenience store. In fact, a number of unmanned, fully-automated stores\u2014most notably BingoBox and Alibaba\u2019s Tao Cafe\u2014have sprung up all over the country. Transactions are made simply by scanning your smartphone on a designated counter or plate before leaving the store.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China’s technology industry is exploding. Last year, gross output value of Chinese tech firms hit $3 trillion for the first year time ever. An excellent article by Frank Holmes,\u00a0CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors\u00a0at\u00a0forbes.com. Stop buying Iranian oil or face the music. That\u2019s the message the U.S. government shared with the world this […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2578,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"amp_status":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"A Massive Windfall For China's Fast-Growing Tech Giants \r\nChina's technology industry is exploding. Last year, gross output value of Chinese tech firms hit $3 trillion for the first year time ever. 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